Scientific Program 5.1 Research Project 1: Modeling, Spatial, Statistics The overall objective of this research project is to develop, validate, and implement mathematical and statistical models for the transmission of naturally occurring infectious diseases and bioterrorism agents. These models will be used to assess the effectiveness and efficacy of various interventions to aid the distribution and allocation of resources in response to infectious disease outbreaks. The specific aims are as follows: 1. To develop or further develop mathematical and statistical models for important infectious disease threats including influenza, cholera, dengue fever, TB, novel coronaviruses, and new emerging infectious diseases. This will involve the development of general models to understand the transsmission of infectious diseases, as well as the development of specific models for each infectious disease studied. 2. To use the epidemic mathematical and statistical models to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions involving surveillance and containment, vaccination, antimicrobials, social distancing, and other control strategies for the infectious diseases in specific aim 1. 3. To use and develop statistical methods to estimate the important parameters and variables from data available for the infectious diseases. These statistical methods will include both novel and innovative likelihood and empirical, hierarchical Bayesian models, as well as MCMC methods